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  • Evidence, cluelessness, and the long term - Hilary
    And it stuck pretty hard The term "cluelessness" has been used in the philosophical literature for decades, to refer to the specific and well-defined problem faced by consequentialism and other moral theories which take future consequences into account Greaves's talk is a contribution to that literature
  • What consequences? — EA Forum
    By “cluelessness”, I mean the possibility that we don’t have a clue about the overall net impact of our actions [1] Another way of framing this concern: when we think about the consequences of our actions, how do we determine what consequences we should consider? First, some definitions The consequences of an action can be divided into three categories: Proximate consequences – the
  • Cluelessness - EA Forum
    Cluelessness is radical uncertainty about the long-term effects of our actions Simple versus complex cluelessness All actions we take have huge effects on the future One way of seeing this is by considering identity-altering actions Imagine that Amy passes her friend on the street and they stop to chat Amy and her friend will now be on a different trajectory than they would have been
  • Doing good while clueless — EA Forum
    The second post considers a potential reply to concerns about cluelessness The third post examines how tractable cluelessness is – to what extent we can grow more clueful about an intervention through intentional effort? This post discusses how we might do good while being clueless to an important extent
  • Summary: Maximal Cluelessness (Andreas Mogensen) — EA Forum
    Maximal cluelessness is a Global Priorities Institute Working Paper by Andreas Mogensen He argues you need not prefer the AMF to Make-A-Wish, and many EA priority rankings seem to be in tension with reasonable assumptions about rational decision-making under uncertainty
  • Solving the moral cluelessness problem with Bayesian joint probability
    The complex cluelessness problem Greaves has the following worry about complex cluelessness: The cases in question have the following structure: For some pair of actions of interest A1, A2, - (CC1) We have some reasons to think that the unforeseeable consequences of A1 would systematically tend to be substantially better than those of A2;
  • Reasons-based choice and cluelessness — EA Forum
    Cluelessness In his discussion of cluelessness, Mogensen looks at two charities aimed at doing good in the short-term: the Against Malaria Foundation (AMF) and the Make-a-Wish Foundation (MAWF) He points out that the net long-run welfare implications of donating to one or the other are extremely unclear
  • Consequentialism and Cluelessness — EA Forum
    Conclusion I’ve argued that the cluelessness objection is deeply misguided Invisible high stakes don’t undermine ordinary expected value verdicts And even if they did, that wouldn’t undermine consequentialism because the question of what fundamentally matters is epistemically prior to the question of whether we can reliably track it
  • How to dissolve moral cluelessness about donating mosquito
    Moral cluelessness of this kind might prevent us from, for instance, knowing whether donating mosquito bednets is net positive, in the very long-term, because we don't know its influence on existential risk and the long-term future
  • Andreas Mogensens Maximal Cluelessness — EA Forum
    Andreas Mogensen, a Senior Research Fellow at the Global Priorities Institute, has just published a draft of a paper on "Maximal Cluelessness" Abstr…





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